SoftBank Records $12B Profit

Good morning,

We’re heading into Wednesday with some pretty heavy baggage. After yesterday’s consumer price report came in hotter than expected, everyone is staring at the wholesale inflation numbers hitting this morning. The big fear? That those high gas prices we’ve been seeing because of the Iran conflict are finally making everything else more expensive. Most traders are now betting the Fed won't be cutting interest rates anytime soon.

Trump is taking the "Big Tech" crew to China. While things are messy in the Middle East, the President is headed to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping. He’s not going alone, either—he’s brought Elon Musk and Tim Cook along for the ride. The goal is to talk trade and AI, but it’s a weird split-screen moment because, back in the Gulf, Trump warned that the ceasefire with Iran is on "life support." As you’d expect, oil prices are creeping up again as people get nervous about the Strait of Hormuz staying blocked.

The Fed has a new boss. While we’re all focused on inflation, the Senate is about to confirm Kevin Warsh as the new head of the Federal Reserve. It’s a huge change at a really rocky time. Everyone wants to know if he’s going to be tougher on inflation than the last guy, especially with energy costs staying this high.

We’ve also got some big names reporting earnings today. Keep an eye on Cisco, Alibaba, and Birkenstock. These will show us if people are still spending money globally and if the "war tax" on energy is starting to hurt the bottom line for big companies.

Between the inflation data, the China trip, and a peace deal that’s falling apart, the market is looking for some solid ground. 

📊 Futures Mixed as Markets Digest Hot Inflation and Trump’s Iran Warning
U.S. stock futures showed a mixed performance early Wednesday as investors navigated hotter-than-expected inflation data and rising Treasury yields. While President Trump attempted to calm markets by predicting a post-war stocks rally "through the roof," Wall Street remains on edge ahead of his high-stakes summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

🇯🇵 SoftBank Profit Triples to $12B Fueled by OpenAI Gains
Technology giant SoftBank Group reported a net profit of 1.83 trillion yen ($11.60 billion) for the January-March quarter, marking its fifth consecutive quarterly win. The surge was driven by a massive 3.1 trillion yen gain from its Vision Fund’s investment in ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, as the AI boom continues to pad the bottom line.

📉 Japanese Investors Divest $4B in Foreign Stocks as Energy Costs Spike
Japanese investors became net sellers of foreign equities in April for the first time in four months, offloading a net 636.4 billion yen ($4.04 billion). The retreat marks the largest monthly divestment since late last year, triggered by rising energy costs from the Iran war and mounting global inflation risks.

🌏 Asia Markets Mixed Ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting
Indices across the Asia-Pacific diverged Wednesday as traders assessed the impact of hot U.S. inflation data and persistent Middle East tensions. Sentiment remains fragile after President Trump labeled the month-old Iran ceasefire "unbelievably weak" and on "massive life support" following the rejection of Tehran's latest peace proposal.

💵 Dollar Near 1-Week High as Inflation Fans Fed Hike Bets
The U.S. dollar index held steady at 98.33, nearing its strongest level in a week as risk sentiment soured. A "hot" inflation reading has sent Treasury yields higher and pushed investors toward the greenback, which has been tracking risk sentiment closely throughout the duration of the Iran war.

🛢️ Oil Prices Slip as Trump Heads to High-Stakes China Summit
Brent crude futures dropped 1.1% to $106.55, snapping a three-day rally as the market shifts focus to the upcoming meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping. Investors are bracing for potential geopolitical developments that could influence both trade relations and the fragile Middle East ceasefire.

₿ Bitcoin Defies Historic Bear Market Trends on Steady ETF Inflows
Analysts suggest Bitcoin may avoid the deep drawdowns of previous bear markets thanks to consistent spot ETF inflows and corporate treasury buying. This institutional support is currently absorbing selling pressure, resulting in a significantly smaller drawdown compared to historic crypto cycles.

Your Biggest Trading Surprise Might Be Taxes

You focus on entries. Exits. Risk. Profit.

Then tax season arrives.

Suddenly, things get complicated. Different rules for different assets. Short-term gains. Reporting requirements. Records you forgot to keep.

That’s where many traders get caught off guard.

A profitable year can turn stressful fast if you didn’t plan for taxes properly. Some traders spend so much time chasing gains that they forget part of those gains may not fully belong to them.

Strong traders treat taxes as part of trading, not something to think about later. They track trades properly. They keep records organized. They understand the basic rules that apply to their situation.

Because keeping money matters too.

When you prepare early, trading feels more controlled. You avoid panic later. You make decisions with a clearer understanding of your real results.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI is a speed tracker for price. It moves on a scale from 0 to 100.

🔴 The Red Zone (Above 70)

The Meaning: The market is "Overheated." Buyers have been too aggressive, and the price is now stretched like a rubber band. The Move: Stop buying. This is the danger zone where the price usually "snaps back" and drops.

🟡 The Yellow Zone (40 to 60)

The Meaning: This is the "Steady Flow" zone. The price is moving at a healthy pace without too much hype or panic. The Move: Stay in your position. As long as the pulse stays here, the trend is stable and safe to follow.

🟢 The Green Zone (Below 30)

The Meaning: The market is "Frozen." Panic-selling has pushed the price so low that it is now considered a bargain. The Move: Get ready. This is where big bounces happen because the selling has finally run out of gas.

🔍 Two Simple Signals to Watch

1. The U-Turn

The best signals happen when the line leaves a zone.

• To Sell: Watch for the line to go into the Red Zone and then hook back down.
• To Buy: Watch for the line to go into the Green Zone and then hook back up.

2. The Lie Detector

Sometimes the price goes up, but the RSI "pulse" goes down. This means the price is lying to you.

• The Warning: If the price makes a new high but the RSI peak is lower than the last one, the energy is gone. A crash is coming.
• The Hint: If the price makes a new low but the RSI floor is higher than the last one, the buyers are secretly stepping in. A rally is coming.

💡 The Pro Secret

Think of the 50-level as the middle of a tug-of-war. If the line is above 50, the buyers are winning. If it’s below 50, the sellers have the upper hand. Always try to trade in the same direction as the winner.

“I’ll Just Hold It Overnight”

It’s late.

The trade isn’t dead… but it’s definitely not healthy.

You’ve stared at it for hours hoping price would turn around.

It didn’t.

Now you’re stuck with a decision:

Take the loss now…or hold overnight and “see what happens.”

So you convince yourself:

“Asia session might reverse it.”

“Maybe pre-market saves me.”

“It’s not THAT far from recovery.”

Translation?

You don’t want to accept the loss.

So instead of closing the trade yourself… you hand the decision to the market while you sleep 😬

That’s the dangerous part.

Because once the lights are off and the laptop closes, your imagination starts negotiating on your behalf.

Suddenly holding feels reasonable.

Hope becomes analysis.

And traders are VERY creative when avoiding pain 😂

Here’s what makes overnight holds tricky:

Sometimes they work.

That’s what reinforces the behavior.

You wake up one morning, price recovered, and you feel like a genius.

Now your brain stores the wrong lesson:

“See? Patience.”

No.

Sometimes it’s patience.

Other times it’s emotional avoidance wearing a fake mustache pretending to be patience.

Big difference.

Real patience follows a plan.

The Overnight Hold Gamble usually happens when the original plan already failed.

Your stop was hit emotionally before it was hit technically.

You just refused to act.

And now risk changes completely.

News can drop overnight.

Liquidity disappears.

Markets gap.Spreads widen.

Meanwhile you’re asleep drooling on a pillow while your account is out there fighting for survival without supervision 😭

That’s not control.

That’s surrender.

Good traders don’t hold overnight because they’re scared to close.

They hold because it was PART OF THE PLAN from the beginning.

That distinction matters more than most people realize.

So here’s a hard question worth asking yourself:

“If this trade wasn’t already open… would I enter it right now and hold it overnight?”

If the answer is no…

You probably already know what you should do.

Because a lot of trading mistakes come from one simple thing:

Trying to avoid a small, controlled pain today… and accidentally creating a much bigger one tomorrow.

The market will always be there in the morning.

Your job is making sure your discipline is too 🧠