Oil Prices Plunge 5%

Good morning!

We’re kicking off Monday with green across the board. Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures are up 0.5%, while Dow futures are leading gains with a 0.6% rise. Investors are shaking off a volatile July after President Trump announced over the weekend that he called off a planned military strike against Iran, choosing instead to negotiate a deal to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices plunge, taking pressure off inflation and yields. The news of renewed U.S.-Iran talks brought instant relief to energy and bond markets. Brent crude dropped over 5% toward $81 a barrel, taking a massive chunk out of the energy risk premium. With inflation fears cooling off, U.S. Treasury yields eased across the board, giving stocks room to rally.

A major week for corporate earnings and economic data begins. While geopolitics sets a positive tone this morning, Wall Street faces a packed agenda:

• Palantir (PLTR) reports Q2 earnings later today, serving as a key benchmark for software-side AI growth.
• SpaceX (SPCX) will release its first quarterly earnings report since going public, with investors closely watching its numbers near all-time stock lows.
• Economic Indicators: Traders will digest manufacturing health updates today via S&P Global’s PMI and ISM’s Manufacturing Index, all building up to Friday’s critical July jobs report.

It’s an encouraging, peace-driven Monday open. The sudden drop in oil prices is giving the market a breather, but investors are keeping their eyes on incoming earnings and Friday's employment data to see if the momentum can hold.

📈 U.S. Futures Rise as President Trump Calls Off Iran Attack and Crude Yields Ease
U.S. stock futures advanced on Monday morning to open August trading, kicking off a busy week of corporate earnings and key labor market data. Contracts tied to the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 rose about 0.5%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 0.6% after President Trump called off planned strikes against Iran, helping cool crude oil prices and Treasury yields.

🚀 Analysts Warn on SpaceX Valuation Ahead of Crucial First Public Q2 Earnings
SpaceX (SPCX) is scheduled to report its second-quarter financial results on Tuesday, August 4, giving public markets their first detailed look into how the aerospace giant plans to justify its elevated market valuation. Ahead of the release, shareholders are bracing for a Big Tech-style quarterly update marked by heavy capital expenditures, uncertain cash flow dynamics, and an impending increase in tradable shares.

₿ Michael Saylor Claims Strategy’s Next $1 Trillion Opportunity Lies in Bitcoin Credit
Strategy Inc (MSTR) Executive Chairman Michael Saylor stated during the company's Q2 earnings call that its primary $1 trillion growth opportunity is not simply accumulating more Bitcoin, but creating "digital credit" products backed by its balance sheet. By issuing short-duration, low-volatility fixed-income products tied to BTC, Strategy aims to attract traditional institutional capital that cannot hold crypto tokens directly.

💊 AstraZeneca in Talks for Mega $400B Merger with Bristol Myers Squibb
UK drugmaker AstraZeneca is in preliminary discussions to acquire U.S. rival Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) in a landmark transaction valued at approximately $400 billion. If completed, the combined oncology powerhouse would create the world's fourth-largest pharmaceutical company by market capitalization, though AstraZeneca's London-listed shares slid over 6% in early trading on investor skepticism.

🛢️ Oil Prices Plunge 5% Below $80 as President Trump Suspends Iran Strikes for Talks
Global crude benchmarks tumbled roughly 5% on Monday morning after President Donald Trump called off planned military strikes on Iran and announced fresh diplomatic talks. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 4.5% to $80.89 a barrel while Brent futures lost 4.4% to $84.10, as geopolitical risk premiums unwound on hopes of securing safe commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

🤖 Alibaba Unveils Flagship Qwen3.8-Max AI Model to Directly Challenge U.S. Competitors
Alibaba Group officially launched its latest flagship artificial intelligence model, Qwen3.8-Max, featuring 2.4 trillion parameters and a 1 million-token context window designed for agentic reasoning and complex coding. The Chinese technology giant claimed the model matches or outperforms top U.S. architectures like Anthropic's across key benchmarks, confirming plans to release its open weights next week.

💻 AMD Prepares for Q2 Earnings Report amid High Volatility Across Semiconductor Stocks
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is set to deliver its second-quarter earnings report this week as the global semiconductor sector experiences sharp price swings and valuation scrutiny. Institutional investors are watching closely for data center revenue figures and forward guidance on MI300/MI400 series AI accelerators to gauge whether hardware demand remains resilient.

More Markets Don't Always Mean More Opportunities

Stocks. Forex. Crypto. Commodities. Options.

Everything is moving.

So you try to trade all of them.

At first, it feels like you're increasing your chances of finding great setups.

In reality, you're dividing your attention.

Every market has its own rhythm. Different trading hours. Different drivers. Different risks. The more markets you try to follow, the harder it becomes to understand any one of them well.

Many traders mistake being busy for being productive. They jump from one chart to another, afraid they'll miss the next big move.

Strong traders know that focus is an edge.

They specialize. They learn how a market behaves. They understand its patterns, its volatility, and the events that move it. Instead of knowing a little about everything, they know a lot about what they trade.

Because you don't need to catch every opportunity.

You only need to recognize the right ones.

The market rewards depth more than breadth.

Williams %R

Williams %R Overbought and Oversold Thresholds. Source: Alchemy Markets

The Williams %R (or Williams Percent Range) is a fast-acting momentum oscillator developed by Larry Williams. It moves between 0 and -100 to measure where an asset’s current closing price is relative to the highest high over a given period (typically 14 periods). Because it uses an inverted negative scale, the top of the chart represents overbought territory, while the bottom represents oversold territory.

🔴 The Red Zone (Above -20 / Overbought)

The Meaning: The Williams %R line travels near the top of the indicator, climbing between 0 and -20. This shows that the price is trading near the peak of its recent 14-period range.

The Move: Exercise caution. The market is overbought, meaning the upward move is getting stretched. Watch for the indicator line to turn downward and cross back below -20 as your signal that buyers are losing control and a pullback is starting.

🟡 The Yellow Zone (-20 to -80)

The Meaning: The Williams %R line travels inside the neutral middle zone between -20 and -80, moving around the central -50 level.

The Move: Hold and wait. The price is moving comfortably within its recent high-low boundaries without extreme momentum on either side. There is no clear overextended edge to exploit.

🟢 The Green Zone (Below -80 / Oversold)

The Meaning: The Williams %R line drops near the bottom of the indicator, sinking between -80 and -100. This reveals that the price is trading near the bottom of its recent 14-period range.

The Move: Get ready. The market is heavily oversold from aggressive selling pressure. Look for the line to hook upward and cross back above -80 to confirm that buyers are stepping back in for a rebound.

🔍 Two Simple Signals to Watch

1. The Threshold Crossover Exit

Never enter a trade purely because the line touches -80 or -20—wait for it to pop back out.

• The Logic: An asset can remain overbought (above -20) or oversold (below -80) for extended periods during a powerful trend. The actual trigger happens when the indicator line exits the extreme zone: crossing above -80 generates a buy signal, while crossing below -20 generates a sell signal.

2. The Failure Swing (Momentum Loss)

Watch how the line behaves when it tries to return to an extreme zone during a pullback.

• The Logic: In a strong uptrend, if Williams %R drops into oversold territory (below -80) but during the next push upward fails to reach above -20, it shows that buying momentum has severely weakened. This "failure swing" acts as an early warning of an impending trend reversal.

💡 The Simple Secret

Think of Williams %R as a rubber band inverted upside down. Because it measures the close relative to the highest high, values near 0 mean the price is pressing right against the ceiling, while values near -100 mean it is resting on the floor. Its key advantage over other oscillators is its speed: Williams %R frequently hits its extreme turns 1 to 2 periods before the price chart itself changes direction, making it an excellent leading indicator for short-term reversals.

You Trusted the Setup... Just Not Enough

A trader once said something that stuck with me.

"My biggest losing trades don't bother me anymore."

"It's the winners I barely participated in that haunt me."

I knew exactly what he meant.

The setup was textbook.

It matched the plan.

You'd taken trades like it before.

You knew the probabilities.

But when it came time to click the button...

Something inside you hesitated.

"Maybe I'll just go half size."

"Let's keep it small... just in case."

The trade takes off almost immediately.

It hits your target.

Everything worked exactly as planned.

Instead of feeling proud...

You feel annoyed.

Not because you lost money.

Because you didn't trust yourself enough to take the opportunity you had spent weeks preparing for.

Now comes the dangerous part.

The next trade appears.

This time you're frustrated.

"I'm not missing another one like yesterday."

So you increase your size.

Except this setup isn't nearly as good.

And, of course...

This one loses.

Do you see the pattern?

You trade your best ideas with fear...

...and your emotional reactions with confidence.

That's backwards.

Here's the truth most traders don't want to hear:

Position sizing isn't just about risk.

It's about self-trust.

If your trading plan says a setup deserves full size, but your emotions keep talking you out of it, then the real problem isn't your strategy.

It's the relationship you have with your own process.

Now, don't misunderstand this.

I'm not saying you should increase your size every time you feel nervous.

Sometimes smaller size is exactly the right decision, especially when you're testing something new or navigating unusual market conditions.

But if you're consistently under-sizing your highest-quality setups because you're afraid they'll fail...

...you're training yourself to doubt your own edge.

And that doubt has a cost.

Not just financially.

Psychologically.

Because every winner you undertrade reinforces the belief that you'll never be satisfied.

The answer isn't to force yourself into bigger positions overnight.

The answer is much simpler.

Define your sizing before the market opens.

Decide what a high-quality setup earns.

Decide what an average setup earns.

Then let the plan make the decision—not your emotions in the heat of the moment.

Remember, confidence isn't proven by taking oversized risks.

It's proven by giving your best opportunities the respect they deserve.

Because one of the most frustrating feelings in trading isn't watching a good trade lose.

It's watching a great trade win...

...while you stood on the sidelines, convincing yourself you were being "careful," when in reality, you were just afraid to trust the work you'd already done.