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Good morning.

It’s Friday - but the markets didn’t get the memo.

Israel reportedly hit Iranian targets overnight, raising fears of escalation just as traders were eyeing weekend wine, not war. Expect oil to spike, and safe havens like gold and the yen to catch bids.

Meanwhile, the dollar’s on the ropes. Bulls are piling into Asian currencies like it’s a flash sale — with the Taiwan dollar and Korean won seeing their strongest bets in years. 

Why? That “not-quite-a-deal” U.S.-China truce has traders cautiously optimistic.

Volatility’s knocking. 

Stay sharp - and stay ready.

💰 Bulls load up on Asian currencies
With the Fed turning dovish and Trump eyeing tariffs, investors are flocking to Asia’s hottest currencies. But how long can the rally hold without real policy clarity?

🚧 Stocks Stumble as Trump’s Trade Plans Keep Investors Guessing
Trump’s vow to unilaterally impose tariffs sent futures sliding and Wall Street’s confidence along with it. Just as inflation shows signs of easing, new trade uncertainty throws the Fed’s path into doubt.

⚠️ U.S. Stocks-Bonds Warnings Flash Amber Again
The equity risk premium has collapsed to zero - a level seen only before major market selloffs in 1987 and the dot-com crash. With stocks looking pricey and bonds dirt cheap, Wall Street may be ignoring flashing amber lights.

📈 Tesla Stock Rallies, But Wells Fargo Says Q2 Deliveries Are Tanking
Shares are on their best run in a month, but delivery data from Europe to China looks grim. Wells Fargo warns the Robotaxi hype won’t stop a 21% sales slump.

🛡️ Bitcoin Must Defend $100K As Tariffs Shake The Table
Markets shrugged off CPI, but not a 55% tariff bomb. With bids thinning and resistance stacking near $120K, BTC needs to hold the line or risk deeper cracks.

🔃 Trade Truce Lands with a Thud as Stocks Turn Mixed
Asia slipped, Europe wobbled, and U.S. futures faded—despite a headline-grabbing U.S.-China agreement. Was this a breakthrough or just old wine in a new bottle?

🇻🇳 Vietnam Courts Nike, Walmart in U.S. Tariff Showdown
With a 46% tariff threat looming, Vietnam's trade minister is knocking on corporate doors. The pitch? Help us help you - before supply chains and sneaker prices explode.

New Recommendation today! 

Microchip Technology (NASDAQ: MCHP)

While the rest of the market keeps throwing tantrums, MCHP has quietly drifted into a zone we’ve been watching for days.

It’s hugging the upper band, RSI just kissed the ceiling, and momentum? 

Already starting to tip over.

We're not calling a collapse - but a clean, technical pullback looks well on the cards. 

This is a sniper shot, not a machine gun spray.

🎯 Targets

Sell: $67.94

TP1: $63.59

TP2: $59.23

Still holding Dexcom and MUSA. 

But today, Microchip joins the roster.

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Keltner Channel

The Keltner Channel is a volatility-based envelope indicator that helps identify trend direction, potential overbought/oversold conditions, and provides trading signals. 

It consists of three lines: a middle moving average, and upper and lower bands that are set a multiple of the Average True Range (ATR) away from the middle line.

What to Look For:

• Three Bands:
  • Middle Band: Typically an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the price, often 20-period. This represents the central trend.
  • Upper Band: Set a multiple (e.g., 2x) of the ATR above the middle band.
  • Lower Band: Set the same multiple of the ATR below the middle band.
    
    
• Trend Identification:
  • Uptrend: Price consistently trades within the upper half of the channel, or repeatedly touches/breaks the upper band.
  • Downtrend: Price consistently trades within the lower half of the channel, or repeatedly touches/breaks the lower band.
  • Sideways/Ranging: Price oscillates around the middle band, staying mostly within the channel.
    
    
• Breakouts:
  • Break above Upper Band: Can signal strong bullish momentum and a potential continuation of an uptrend, or the start of a new uptrend. This is often seen as a significant buy signal.
  • Break below Lower Band: Can signal strong bearish momentum and a potential continuation of a downtrend, or the start of a new downtrend. This is often seen as a significant sell signal.
  • Unlike Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channel breakouts are considered more significant as ATR is used, which is less sensitive to extreme price spikes.
    
    
• Reversions to the Mean: After touching or breaching a band, price often tends to revert back towards the middle band. This can be used for mean-reversion strategies in ranging markets.
  
  
• Squeezes/Expansions (Volatility):
  • Narrowing Channel: Indicates decreasing volatility, often preceding a significant price move (a "squeeze").
  • Widening Channel: Indicates increasing volatility and a strong directional move.
    
    
• Entry/Exit Signals:
  • Long entry: Price closes above the upper band, especially after a period of consolidation.
  • Short entry: Price closes below the lower band.
  • Exit: Price moves back inside the channel after a breakout, or touches the opposite band.
    
    
• Confirmation: Keltner Channels work well when combined with other trend-following or momentum indicators for confirmation of signals.

Let me tell you a hard truth:

You don’t level up by thinking. You level up by doing.

Most traders sit on the sidelines waiting to “feel ready.”

But the truth?

Confidence doesn’t come before the move — it comes after.

It’s like walking into the gym for the first time.

You don’t feel strong until you start lifting.

You don’t feel sure until your reps add up.

In trading, it’s the same game. Execution builds belief.

You don’t wait for confidence to trade — you build confidence by trading.

Every entry, every stop-loss, every review... adds weight to your mindset.

So stop waiting to feel like a pro before you act.

Start where you are, act with discipline, and let action turn fear into fuel.

Confidence isn’t something you feel. It’s something you earn.

And remember - keep following Trading TLDR for weekly fuel, mindset gems, and market updates that turn good traders into great ones.